How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.