Dutch Polls: Major Parties and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Voters in the Netherlands are set to potentially replace the most rightwing government in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were triggered after the breakdown of the previous government in the summer, when far-right politician the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' coalition partners deemed him too toxic for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to adopt a far-reaching 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to patrol borders, rejecting all refugee applicants, closing most asylum centers and sending home all Syrian refugees.
While support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, Islam-critical party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. However, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, typically an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in much of Europe, Dutch politics have been marked in modern times by a significant drop in support for the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from over four-fifths in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to fight "street terrorists", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who joined political life just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is projected to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Headed by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a campaign centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its head, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the once popular, now controversy-plagued FvD – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the ill-fated previous government, the BBB and NSC, are projected to lose out, with the centrist party not even sure of representation in parliament.
The top issues so far have been immigration, with multiple – sometimes violent – demonstrations against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the highly fragmented state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, typically the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a mix of parties from moderate left and center right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several smaller parties potentially including JA21.
